Breaking ECDSA-256 requires approximately 4,000 error-corrected logical qubits running Shor's algorithm. Here's where the leading programmes stand today.
IBM
1,121
Physical qubits (Condor, 2023)
Target: 100,000+ by 2033
Google
105
Physical qubits (Willow, 2024)
Claimed: error rate below threshold
Microsoft
8
Topological qubits (2025)
Approach: topological (more stable)
A chronological record of the most significant quantum computing and post-quantum cryptography milestones.
1994
Shor's Algorithm Published
Peter Shor proves that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could factor large integers exponentially faster than classical computers — directly threatening RSA and ECDSA encryption.
2019
Google Claims Quantum Supremacy
Google's 53-qubit Sycamore processor performs a specific calculation in 200 seconds that would take classical supercomputers 10,000 years — the first demonstration of quantum advantage.
Google
2022
NIST Selects Post-Quantum Standards
NIST announces the first post-quantum cryptography standards, including CRYSTALS-Dilithium (ML-DSA) — the same algorithm VoidCoin uses for P2QR addresses.
NIST
2023
IBM Condor: 1,121 Qubits
IBM releases the Condor processor with 1,121 qubits — the largest superconducting quantum processor ever built at that time, though error rates remain too high for cryptographic attacks.
IBM
2024
Google Willow: Below Error Threshold
Google's Willow chip demonstrates that adding more qubits reduces errors rather than increasing them — a critical milestone suggesting scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing is achievable.
Google
2024
NIST Finalises ML-DSA-87 Standard
NIST formally publishes FIPS 204 (ML-DSA / CRYSTALS-Dilithium) as an official post-quantum digital signature standard — the same scheme used by VoidCoin's vqr1... addresses.
NIST
2025
Microsoft Topological Qubits Demonstrated
Microsoft announces 8 topological qubits — inherently more stable than superconducting qubits, potentially requiring fewer physical qubits per logical qubit.
Microsoft
June 2026
VoidCoin Launches with Native P2QR Addresses
VoidCoin mainnet goes live — the first SHA256d proof-of-work blockchain with ML-DSA-87 quantum-resistant addresses built in from genesis block 0.
VoidCoin
2027–2030 (estimated)
Early Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computers
Leading estimates suggest early fault-tolerant quantum processors with thousands of logical qubits will emerge in this window. Still insufficient to break Bitcoin, but the trajectory becomes undeniable.
2030–2035 (estimated)
Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer
The estimated window in which a quantum computer capable of running Shor's algorithm against 256-bit ECDSA at practical speed becomes plausible. Bitcoin addresses with exposed public keys become vulnerable.
Unknown
ECDSA Broken at Scale
If no migration occurs, any cryptocurrency still using ECDSA signatures could have funds stolen by an entity with access to a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. Addresses that have ever sent a transaction (exposing the public key) are most at risk.